Gaming Generations :: Former Microsoft Exec Says Natal Will Fail

RATEDRSUPERFAN

May 27, 2010 | 9:09 AM PST

by: Geoff Calver

In an interview with Retro Gamer, Scot Bayless, a former studio manager at Microsoft, said that he believes Project Natal will fail.

Bayless experienced the failure of the 32X peripheral for the Genesis when he was a Senior Producer at Sega and told Retro Gamer that he believes Natal could see a similar fate.

"When I met with Microsoft in 2008 to look at Natal I asked: 'When will you integrate this into the 360?' Their response was: 'We're probably going to wait and see on that.' To which I said: 'Then you're going to fail.'"

Bayless believes that Natal will fail because it will split consumers between those who have the peripheral and those who don't and will act as a disincentive to developers. "Plays like this always fragment and the disincentive to developers is powerful; when I'm spending tens of millions on a game, the last thing I want to do is lose 90 per cent of my market."

So is Natal in as much danger as Bayless suggests it is? His conclusion seems logical. After all, many gamers seem skeptical of Natal, and that's a kind way of putting their skepticism. Many are raving mad over it.

Natal is seen among many in the gaming community as a device that's built to cater to the Wii crowd, offering motion-controlled gaming that probably won't integrate very well into shooters, RPGs, racing simulations or sports titles. Rather, from the game demos seen so far it would appear that Natal is geared towards party games and Xbox LIVE Arcade-type titles that feature childish graphics and simplistic gameplay.
As a result, Natal is bound to be picked up by casual gamers and left on the curb by more serious gamers who see no need for the peripheral. Which, obviously, will split the user base of the Xbox 360. A percentage of Xbox 360 owners will have Natal, but the majority most likely will not. After all, even if the Xbox 360 comes bundled with Natal from now on, there are 40 million Xbox 360 systems in the world that don't have the peripheral. And how many gamers who already own an Xbox 360 are going to make an investment into the motion-control device?

What that leaves developers with is a tough choice. Either they develop a game that specifically uses Natal and is geared towards a specific audience or they develop a game that doesn't include Natal or only includes Natal as an optional control scheme. The problem with that angle of attack is that developing controls for both a standard controller and Natal will cost extra money, and developers will have to question whether it is worthwhile investing in Natal controls when a small percentage of gamers will utilize them.

Unfortunately for Microsoft, implementing Natal so far into a console's life cycle leaves a lot of gamers without the peripheral and forces developers into an interesting conundrum.
A second major focal point regarding the viability of Natal and whether it will be popularly used or not will be its price-point, which has yet to be revealed. Speculations on the price run the gamut from $50 to $150. A $50 price point might be low enough to convince many current Xbox 360 owners to purchase the peripheral, but a $150 price point is comparable to the cost of an Xbox 360 arcade, and would probably appeal to a very small percentage of current Xbox 360 owners due to its high price point.

Finally, another sticking point could be the reported use of 10 to 15 per cent of the Xbox 360's CPU power to run Natal. This sort of CPU usage could restrict its ability to be implemented in the most resource-heavy titles, and thus, further indicates a need to cater games to a more casual market that is less concerned with realism and graphics than the current, average Xbox 360 consumer.

It's clear that Natal, even prior to its release, is a hot-button topic for Xbox 360 gamers. Some think it will provide an innovative new way to experience the Xbox 360 while many others feel it will be a waste of time and money. Beyond that, there are the more important questions facing Microsoft as to whether developers will find developing for Natal financially viable. It's a hard nut for Microsoft to crack, but Bayless seems to have a very good point regarding the split in the user base and thus the disincentive to developers.

Natal could very well be a big failure.

SOURCE:http://360.kombo.com/article.php?artid=18975